Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain

Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months. [Display omitted] •Negative binomial mixed models are suitable for predicting wildfires and its overdispersion.•Binomial logit mixed models capture the excess of zeros.•Random effects, varying with month and province, model temporal and spatial variability.•Forecasts under expected scenarios give valuable information for decision-making.