18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Parameters can Predict Long-Term Outcome Following Trimodality Treatment for Oesophageal Cancer

18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) is routinely used for the pre-treatment staging of oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancers (EGEJC). The aim of this study was to identify objective 18FDG-PET/CT-derived parameters that can aid in predicting the patterns of recurrence and prognostication in patients with EGEJC. EGEJC patients referred for consideration of preoperative chemoradiation therapy were identified and clinicopathological data were collected. 18FDG-PET/CT imaging data were reviewed and correlated with treatment outcomes. Maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis were assessed and association with recurrence-free survival (RFS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LR-RFS), oesophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) and overall survival were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, as well as Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier models. In total, 191 EGEJC patients completed trimodality treatment and 164 with 18FDG-PET/CT data were included in this analysis. At the time of analysis, 15 (9.1%), 70 (42.7%) and two (1.2%) patients were noted to have locoregional, distant and both locoregional and distant metastases, respectively. The median RFS was 30 months (9.6–50.4) and the 5-year RFS was 31.1%. The 5-year overall survival and ECSS were both noted to be 34.8%. Pre-treatment MTV25 > 28.5 cm3 (P = 0.029), MTV40 > 12.4 cm3 (P = 0.018) and MTV50 > 10.2 cm3 (P = 0.005) predicted for worse LR-RFS, ECSS and overall survival for MTV definition of voxels ≥25%, 40% and 50% of SUVmax. 18FDG-PET/CT parameters MTV and total lesion glycolysis are useful prognostic tools to predict for LR-RFS, ECSS and overall survival in EGEJC. MTV had the highest accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes. The volume cut-off points we identified for different MTV thresholds predicted outcomes with significant accuracy and may potentially be used for decision making in clinical practice. •18FDG-PET/CT is routinely used for staging oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancers.•Total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and metabolic tumour volume (MTV) are parameters useful for prognostication.•MTV can predict recurrence and survival patterns with significant accuracy.