Gastric cancer incidence trends in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019: Disentangling age–period–cohort patterns

Background Recent data have shown divergent trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence between China and Japan; however, the cause for has not been explored. Methods We retrieved GC incidence data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study, stratified by sex for both countries. We analyzed annual average percentage change (AAPC) via a joinpoint regression model and estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort via the age–period–cohort model. Results The age‐standardized incidence rate trends for GC decreased in both countries and both sexes, but the reduction was more pronounced in Japan because the AAPC for Japanese males (AAPC = −2.65%; 95% CI, −2.98 to −2.32) was eight times greater than that of Chinese males (AAPC = −0.30%; 95% CI, −0.5 to −0.09). The age and cohort effects on the trend are similar in both countries: the risk of GC incidence increased with age among the Chinese and the Japanese but was lower among younger birth cohorts. The two countries showed contrasting trends over the study period; although the risk of GC rapidly decreased for Japanese males and females, it increased by twofold among Chinese males. Conclusions The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in age‐standardized incidence rate for GC in China and Japan. By comparing national cancer control programs in both countries, we concluded that countries with a high prevalence of GC, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience in controlling GC by actively conducting national population screening, which is expected to facilitate both prevention and treatment of GC. Lay summary More than one‐half of all new gastric cancer (GC) worldwide occur in China and Japan, but the reasons for the different incidence trends have not been thoroughly analyzed. Analysis using the age–period–cohort model confirmed that the cohort effect was the main reason for the decline in age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for GC and that the period effect may be the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer ASIR in China and Japan. The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer incidence in China and Japan. Countries with a high prevalence of gastric cancer, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience of actively conducting national population cancer screening.