Validation study of the JSHBPS nomogram for patients with colorectal liver metastases who underwent hepatic resection in the recent era ‐ a nationwide survey in Japan

Background The Japanese Society of Hepato‐Biliary‐Pancreatic Surgery (JSHBPS) nomogram was developed to predict disease‐free survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing upfront hepatectomy. However, the utility of the nomogram in patients with resected CRLM remains unknown in the current situation in which treatment strategies are changing with advances in drugs. Methods Patients in the initial nomogram cohort (n = 727) and validation cohort (n = 2225) were divided into the upfront hepatectomy and preoperative chemotherapy groups. The nomogram was validated by measuring calibration and discrimination in the two cohorts. Calibration curves were plotted, and survival probabilities were compared. Finally, to quantify the discrimination power, we estimated the concordance index (C‐index). Results In the upfront hepatectomy group, the C‐index was 0.63, the suitable cutoff value of the Beppu score was 7, and adjuvant chemotherapy was significantly effective limited to high‐risk patients (Beppu score ≥7). The C‐index was 0.56 in the preoperative chemotherapy group. Conclusions The JSHBPS nomogram remains beneficial for patients undergoing upfront hepatectomy in the recent era but is less effective for patients undergoing hepatectomy after chemotherapy. Patients with a Beppu score ≥7 showed high‐risk recurrence, and adjuvant chemotherapy should be recommended for these patients. The JSHBPS nomogram was developed in 2012 to predict postoperative disease‐free survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases. Beppu and colleagues found that it remains beneficial after upfront hepatectomy in the recent era despite advances in chemotherapy and liver resection. The predicted and observed 5‐year disease‐free survival probabilities were similar.