Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort

Premise The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer‐term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar‐wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction. Methods We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar‐wind energy. Results From 1994 to 2013, the solar‐wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (Ein) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction. Conclusions Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar‐wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.