The first-year course of urine MCP-1 and its association with response to treatment and long-term kidney prognosis in lupus nephritis

Objectives The present study aims to assess the course of uMCP-1 and its association with response to therapy and long-term kidney function in a prospective cohort of adults who received a kidney biopsy for suspicion of active lupus nephritis (LN). Methods Subjects were segregated into a histologically active LN group and a histologically chronic LN group. Both groups were followed for > = 36 months and urine were collected at flare, 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. The association between the course of uMCP-1, response to treatment, and progression to 30% loss of the eGFR was evaluated by linear mixed models for repeated measures. Results A kidney biopsy was performed on 125 subjects. In 114, the report was consistent with histologically active LN; in 11, with histologically chronic LN. Urine MCP-1 levels were significantly higher in the active LN than in the chronic LN group. Urine MCP-1 levels correlated with the histological findings of cellular crescents, endocapillary hypercellularity, interstitial inflammation, glomerular sclerosis, interstitial fibrosis, and tubular atrophy. The mean estimates of uMCP-1 at flare were higher in the non-response group than in the complete response group, and decreased in the complete/partial response groups by the third month, while they remained elevated in the non-response group. The mean estimates for uMCP-1 were higher at LN flare and remained elevated in patients who progressed to loss of 30% of the eGFR, while they decreased in patients with stable kidney function. Conclusion The first-year course of uMCP-1 is associated with response to therapy and kidney survival in LN. Key Points • Urine MCP-1 levels differentiate histologically-active lupus nephritis from histologically-chronic lupus nephritis • Urine MCP-1 levels decrease by 3 months of therapy in subjects with a favorable response whose kidney function remains stable long-term • Urine MCP-1 levels remain elevated during the first year of therapy in subjects the will later lose kidney function