Test and application of the time- and magnitude predictable-model to the intermediate and deep focus earthquakes in the subduction zones of the circum-Pacific belt

The test and application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model in the subduction zones around the circum-Pacific belt are carried out. Each subduction zone was separated into several seismogenic regions on the basis of tectonic and geometric features of the subducting lithosphere and for three different depth ranges. The data derived from these seismogenic regions were used to check the suitability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, as this model was defined for shallow events. The results obtained in the study confirm that this model appropriately describes the behavior of deep seismicity in these regions since a positive and a negative dependence were found for the logarithm of the inter-event times and the magnitude of following main shock on the magnitude of the preceding main shock. Moreover, the slip-predictable model was rejected, since a negative dependence was found between the inter-event times and the magnitudes of the following main shock. Probabilities of occurrence of the future strong (M greater than or equal to 7.0) events in each seismogenic region have been determined for the next decade, conditioned on the previous occurrence of such events. The magnitudes of the expected events have also been estimated. Statistical tests for the estimated probabilities exhibit a good correlation with the occurrence rate of such events. Furthermore, the statistical significance of the model has been studied through additional tests. The results of this study demonstrate the validity of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model in the areas examined.