Sunk‐Cost Bias and Knowing When to Terminate a Research Project

Scientific research is an open‐ended quest where success usually triumphs over failure. The tremendous success of science obscures the tendency for the non‐linear discovery process to take longer and cost more than expected. Perseverance through detours and past setbacks requires a significant commitment that is fueled by scientific optimism; the same optimism required to overcome challenges simultaneously exacerbates the very human tendency to continue a line of inquiry when the likelihood of success is minimal, the so‐called sunk‐cost bias. This Viewpoint Article shows how the psychological phenomenon of sunk‐cost bias influences medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemists by comparing how the respective industrial and academic practitioners approach sunk‐cost bias; a series of interviews and illustrative quotes provide a rich trove of data to address this seldom discussed, yet potentially avoidable research cost. The concluding strategies recommended for mitigating against sunk‐cost bias should benefit not only medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemists but a wide array of chemistry practitioners. An awareness of sunk‐cost bias provides an antidote to the scientific optimism that exacerbates the tendency to continue research projects when the likelihood of success is minimal. A survey of academic and industrial practices, as summarized in the sunk‐cost bias decision matrix, captures how implementing controls facilitates data‐driven decisions to terminate or continue research while avoiding emotionally driven decisions that can sap resources.