Solar cycle variation of the low-altitude trapped proton flux

Under NASA's Space Environment Effects (SEE) program, we are developing new models for the low-altitude (250–1000 km, L < 1.5) trapped radiation environment based on data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The unique features of this data base and model include the long time series (more than one complete solar cycle) obtained from the TIROS/NOAA data and the use of a coordinate system more applicable to the low-altitude environment. The data show a strong variation (as much as a factor of 10) over the solar cycle and a hysteresis effect between the rising and falling portions of the solar cycle. Both the solar cycle variation and the hysteresis are functions of L. In addition to the hysteresis effect, the flux during a given cycle appears to be a function of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the gradual variation over the solar cycle, transient effects, correlated with solar particle events (SPEs), can be clearly seen. Comparison with the AP8 models shows that the measured flux is a factor of 2–3 higher than the model. These data have important implications for the development and use of trapped radiation models, and will also contribute to our knowledge of the source and loss mechanisms at work in the inner zone.