Global three-dimensional modeling of the water vapor concentration of the mesosphere-mesopause region and implications with respect to the noctilucent cloud region

A global three‐dimensional model of the dynamics (0–150 km) and chemistry (30–150 km) of the middle atmosphere has been developed and applied to the problem of the water vapor distribution of the mesosphere‐mesopause region. The mesopause region is one of the most intricate domains of the atmosphere and requires an extraordinarily careful modeling. In order to interpret the specific feature of the water vapor distribution, particular attention was paid to the problem of the effective characteristic chemical time and the comparison of this time with the characteristic transport time. The results confirm measurements which show highest concentrations during the summer months and lowest concentrations in the winter in the middle and high latitudes of the mesosphere because of the seasonal variation of the vertical wind system and change in the altitudes of levels of constant pressure as a result of a mean cooling or warming below the respective heights. The equator region is marked by a semiannual variation with maxima around the equinoxes. By way of contrast, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements show maxima around solstices, however, with some exceptions for which a maximum also occurs during the equinox. This points to a dynamically sensitive equatorial region. At high latitudes the extremely low temperatures within the mesopause region in summer and the relatively high water vapor concentrations cause a supersaturation of water vapor which is the condition for the formation of noctilucent clouds (NLCs). The calculated seasonal and latitudinal border of the domain of supersaturation corresponds quite well with the mean areas of the occurrence of NLCs; however, it is impossible to model specific events on the basis of such a coarse model as the occurrence of NLCs at middle latitudes. There is no direct hemispheric transport from the summer to the winter hemisphere within the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere, but the meridional transport occurs in a more complicated manner.