Methodology for Predicting Cooling Water Effects on Fish

The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Sparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically valued species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.