Budget projections and clinical impact of an immuno-oncology class of treatments: Experience in four EU markets

•The HIP model reduces uncertainty and informs stakeholders of the potential budget and health impact of the anti-PD-(L)1 class for 5 years.•It projects PD-(L)1 spending in a country context, compared to the current SOC for melanoma, 1 and 2L NSCLC, bladder, head and neck, RCC, and TNBC.•The adaptations for Austria, Belgium, Italy, and Slovenia showed that in 5 years the class could produce more than 36,570 LYGs and avoid about 16,770 AEs.•The HIP is a horizon scanning model providing valuable data to payers which they can use to support their reimbursement plans.•The HIP is a strategic tool allowing assessment of the implications of policy decisions such as future investment or accelerated access to IOs. Immunotherapies have revolutionized oncology, but their rapid expansion may potentially put healthcare budgets under strain. We developed an approach to reduce demand uncertainty and inform decision makers and payers of the potential health outcomes and budget impact of the anti-PD-1/PD-L1 class of immuno-oncology (IO) treatments. We used partitioned survival modelling and budget impact analysis to estimate overall survival, progression-free survival, life years gained (LYG), and number of adverse events (AEs), comparing “worlds with and without” anti-PD-1/PD-L1s over five years. The cancer types initially included melanoma, first and second line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder, head and neck, renal cell carcinoma, and triple negative breast cancer [1]. Inputs were based on publicly available data, literature, and expert advice. The model [2] estimated budget and health impact of the anti-PD-1/PD-L1s and projected that between 2018−2022 the class [3] would have a manageable economic impact per year, compared to the current standard of care (SOC). The first country adaptations showed that for that period Belgium would save around 11,100 additional life years and avoid 6,100 AEs. Slovenia - 1,470 LYGs and 870 AEs avoided; Austria - respectively 4,200, 3,000; Italy – 19,800, 6,800. For Austria, the class had a projected share of about 4.5 % of the cancer care budget and 0.4 % of the total 2020 healthcare budget. For Belgium, Slovenia, and Italy - respectively 15.1 % and 1.1 %, 12.6 %, 0.6 %, and 6.5 %, 0.5 %. The Health Impact Projection (HIP) is a horizon scanning model designed to estimate the potential budget and health impact of the PD-(L)1 inhibitor class at a country level for the next five years. It provides valuable data to payers which t