Development and internal validation of a multivariable risk prediction model for severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery involving single-shot popliteal sciatic nerve block

Rebound pain occurs after up to 50% of ambulatory surgeries involving regional anaesthesia. To assist with risk stratification, we developed a model to predict severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery involving single-shot popliteal sciatic nerve block. After ethics approval, we performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study. Patients undergoing lower limb surgery with popliteal sciatic nerve block from January 2016 to November 2019 were included. Exclusion criteria were uncontrolled pain in the PACU, use of a perineural catheter, or loss to follow-up. We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model for severe rebound pain, defined as transition from well-controlled pain in the PACU (numerical rating scale [NRS] 3 or less) to severe pain (NRS ≥7) within 48 h. A priori predictors were age, sex, surgery type, planned admission, local anaesthetic type, dexamethasone use, and intraoperative anaesthesia type. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Nagelkerke's R2, scaled Brier score, and calibration slope. The cohort included 1365 patients (mean [standard deviation] age: 50 [16] yr). The primary outcome was abstracted in 1311 (96%) patients, with severe rebound pain in 652 (50%). Internal validation revealed poor model performance, with AUROC 0.632 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.602–0.661; bootstrap optimisation 0.021), Nagelkerke's R2 0.063, and scaled Brier score 0.047. Calibration slope was 0.832 (95% CI: 0.623–1.041). We show that a multivariable risk prediction model developed using routinely collected clinical data had poor predictive performance for severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery. Prospective studies involving other patient-related predictors are needed. NCT05018104.