Uncertainty health risk assessment and regional control of drinking water: a case study of Hanyuan County, southwest mountainous area, China

To evaluate the health risks of drinking water in Hanyuan County, 96 samples of peripheral drinking water were collected from 30 sites in the area. The samples were then analyzed for chemical properties including Fe, Mn, NH 3 -N, NO 3 - , F − , Pb, Hg, As, Cr(VI), Cd, and so on. The health risks of ten trace elements in drinking water were probabilistically assessed using the health risk assessment model and Monte Carlo simulation. On this basis, sequential indicator simulations were used to classify the health risk levels of drinking water in the region, to conduct hierarchical management and control. The results showed that except for NO 3 - , all other indicators met World Health Organization standards and China’s drinking water sanitation standards. Drinking water presents a specific carcinogenic risk to adults, and the cumulative contribution of As and Cr(VI) exceeds 95%, and has a specific non-carcinogenic risk to children if the cumulative contribution of F − , NO 3 - , and As exceeds 90%. Grade I, II, and III non-carcinogenic risk areas accounted for 0.89%, 24.72%, and 74.39% of the total area of Hanyuan County, respectively, while grade I, II, and III carcinogenic risk areas accounted for 27.71%, 45.56%, and 26.73% of the total Hanyuan County area, respectively. Finally, according to the health risk characteristics of each control area, corresponding zoning control suggestions were proposed.