Early reduction in spectral dual-layer detector CT parameters as favorable imaging biomarkers in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Objectives To associate the early change in DL-CT parameters and HU with survival outcomes and treatment response in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Methods DL-CT scans were performed at baseline and after 1 month of checkpoint immunotherapy or tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. Scans were reconstructed to conventional CT and DL-CT series, and used for assessment of HU, iodine concentration (IC), and the effective atomic number (Z effective ) in the combined RECISTv.1.1 target lesions. The relative changes, defined as ΔIC(combined), ΔZ effective (combined), and ΔHU(combined), were associated with progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and objective response rate (ORR). The reduction in the sum of diameters of target lesions ≥ 30% after 1 month was associated with OS, PFS, and ORR. Results Overall, 115 and 104 mRCC patients were included at baseline and 1 month, respectively. Median IC(combined) decreased from 2.3 to 1.2 mg/ml ( p < 0.001), Z effective (combined) from 8.5 to 8.0 ( p < 0.001), and HU(combined) from 86.0 to 64.00 HU ( p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustments, the largest reductions in ΔIC(combined) (HR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.24–0.94, p = 0.033) and ΔZ effective (combined) (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.21–0.87, p = 0.019) were associated with favorable OS; the largest reduction in ΔZ effective (combined) was associated with higher response (OR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.12–6.94, p = 0.027). The largest reduction in ΔHU(combined) was solely associated with OS in univariate analysis (HR 0.45, 95% CI: 0.23–0.91). Reduction in SOD ≥ 30% at 1 month was not associated with outcomes ( p > 0.075). Conclusions Early reductions at 1 month in ΔIC(combined) and ΔZ effective (combined) are associated with favorable outcomes in patients with mRCC. This information may reassure physicians and patients about treatment strategy. Key Points • Early reductions following 1 month of therapy in spectral dual-layer detector CT-derived iodine concentration and the effective atomic number (Z effective ) are independent biomarkers for better overall survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. • Early reduction after 1 month of therapy in the effective atomic number (Z effective ) is an independent imaging biomarker for better treatment response metastatic renal cell carcinoma.