Drivers of the peaking and decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth around 2030 in China

Reaching the peak of carbon dioxide emissions is the basis and premise of carbon neutrality. In this paper, the factor decomposition model was used to analyze the influencing factors and effects of carbon dioxide emissions. Causal chain model of elastic decoupling was established. The historical decoupling state between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth and the decoupling effect of its influencing factors were analyzed. The prediction model of carbon dioxide emissions was used to explore the change trend of China’s carbon dioxide emissions and its peak in the short and medium term in the future. The elastic decoupling trend between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth was predicted. The results show that economic growth is the main force driving carbon dioxide emissions. Both energy intensity and energy consumption structure have a strong inhibiting effect on carbon dioxide emissions except for a few years, but the former has a more significant inhibiting effect than the latter. In general, the elastic decoupling between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth has experienced a state from weak decoupling to growth linkage and then to weak decoupling. And this weak decoupling trend will continue to increase in the short and medium term. During the 14th Five-year and 15th Five-year period, if the average annual economic growth rate will be maintained at 4.61 to 5.85%, energy intensity will be reduced by 16.14 to 18.37%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the energy consumption structure at the end of the 14th, 15th, and 16th Five-Year Plan period will be around 19.9%, 23.2%, and 26.1%, respectively, and then the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions will continue to decline. It is expected to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions between 10,453 and 10,690 billion tons from 2025 to 2027. And the earlier the peak time is, the smaller the peak is, which would provide valuable time for carbon neutrality and room to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the medium and long term.