COVID-19: Risk Perception, Risk Communication, and Behavioral Intentions

Critical to limiting the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and future pandemics is compliance with behavioral recommendations such as mask wearing and social distancing. Compliance may depend upon understanding the seriousness of the health consequences and the likelihood they will occur. However, the statistics that speak to these issues in an ongoing pandemic are complex and may be misunderstood. An online experiment with a U.S. sample tested the impact on perceived likelihood, trust, concern, behavioral intentions, and agreement with government response of numeric (mortality/infection percentage by age group) and gist expressions (which age group was smaller [mortality] or roughly equivalent [infected]). While the differences in risk perception and willingness to engage in activities between younger and older participants were small, "gist infection and mortality" increased willingness to wear a mask among younger participants. Government restrictions (e.g., social distancing) impacted willingness to engage is risk-reduction and risk-seeking activities. The biggest differences were due to political ideology. Although conservatives perceived similar levels of risk as did liberals, they were much less willing to engage in protective behaviors and support government policies. However, conservatives were affected by some risk communication formats and restrictions suggesting that future work should be aimed at this issue. Public Significance Statement Peoples' risk perception may be influenced by messaging that focuses on single outcomes (more elderly among deaths) intended to protect the most vulnerable. Younger people may think they are also less likely to become infected. However, messages including both mortality and infection statistics can overcome this bias. Results also suggest that although there are large differences due to political ideology, government restrictions encourage appropriate protective behavior across the political spectrum.