Quantified impacts of international trade on the United States’ carbon intensity

After the USA reached its carbon emission peak in 2007, the share of carbon emissions from its energy activities showed a downward trend. As a country that accounts for even close to 80% of the tertiary industry, the final demands from other industries are usually met by other countries in the form of international trade. While trade is realizing economic transfer, it also realizes the transfer of carbon emissions to a certain extent, helping the country achieve the peaks. From the perspective of combining carbon emission transfer and economic transfer, are there transfers and impacts? In this study, the quantified impact of international trade on the USA’s carbon intensity has been investigated by a novel framework, based on a porposed scenario analysis using MRIO. As it gets lower aggregate carbon intensity value under trade scenario, it concludes that international trade is more conducive to the needs of this country for carbon emission reduction and economic development in general. From the different trade patterns, all of them get lower carbon intensity values under trade than no-trade scenario. From trade partners’ perspectives, the positive and negative of the intensity gap cannot be kept uniform for all traders. Sectoral driving factors are decomposed by LMDI method, with the sectoral effect of aggrerate value-added structure and sectoral aggregate embodied carbon intensity. Among obvious carbon-intensive sectors, transport sectors always show a negative effect for the gap, and heavy manufacturing and electricity sectors usually give positive effects. As a major trading country in the world, trade and exchanges with other countries are more conducive to this country with a lower carbon intensity, and it also requires the country to shoulder coresponding responsiblities as a great power while enjoying the benefies. It is conducive to the further strengthening of unity of the international community, to jointly address the challenges of climate change and achieve the subsequent carbon neutral targets. Graphical abstract