A numerical investigation of tropical island thunderstorms

A version of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office mesoscale weather prediction model is used to simulate cases of deep tropical convection from the Island Thunderstorm Experiment off the north coast of Australia. Selected cases contrast rather isolated storm development in a dry basic state, with widespread precipitation from a moist basic state. Excellent agreement is found between the simulations and the observed early shower development on both occasions. Initiation of convection occurs along the sea-breeze front, which is then reinforced by downdraft outflows. Merging of simulated cells occurs where the outflows meet, producing cells with cloud tops above 18 km and updraft speeds of 60 m s super(-) super(1) . The later movement of the storms is less well represented, probably due to weakness in the storm-mean flow interaction. Comparison of the cases shows that differences in the timing of initiation and intensity of subsequent convection are well captured, and relate to differences in the initial sounding. Mean budgets of heat, moisture, and momentum are presented, and sensitivity of the simulations to resolution, island shape, and model microphysics is explored.