Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of "critical" tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. A wave is called critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous. Using the middle Kuril Island as an example, the results are presented of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep water Bussol and Diana straits. Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the locations and geometry of the focus zones. The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.