Computed tomography-derived biomarker for predicting the treatment response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of rectal cancer

Background Malignant tumor essentially implies structural heterogeneity. Analysis of medical imaging can quantify this structural heterogeneity, which can be a new biomarker. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of texture analysis of computed tomography (CT) imaging as a biomarker for predicting the therapeutic response of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer. Methods We enrolled 76 patients with rectal cancer who underwent curative surgery after nCRT. Texture analyses (Fractal analysis and Histogram analysis) were applied to contrast-enhanced CT images, and fractal dimension (FD), skewness, and kurtosis of the tumor were calculated. These CT-derived parameters were compared with the therapeutic response and prognosis. Results Forty-six of 76 patients were diagnosed as clinical responders after nCRT. Kurtosis was significantly higher in the responders group than in the non-responders group (4.17 ± 4.16 vs. 2.62 ± 3.19, p = 0.04). Nine of 76 patients were diagnosed with pathological complete response (pCR) after surgery. FD of the pCR group was significantly lower than that of the non-pCR group (0.90 ± 0.12 vs. 1.01 ± 0.12, p = 0.009). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of tumor FD for predicting pCR was 0.77, and the optimal cut-off value was 0.84 (accuracy; 93.4%). Furthermore, patients with lower FD tumors tended to show better relapse-free survival and disease-specific survival than those with higher FD tumors (5-year, 80.8 vs. 66.6%, 94.4 vs. 80.2%, respectively), although it was not statistically significant ( p = 0.14, 0.11). Conclusions CT-derived texture parameters could be potential biomarkers for predicting the therapeutic response of rectal cancer.