The predictive value of the ‘VMS frail older patients’ for adverse outcomes in geriatric inpatients

•Almost all geriatric inpatients scored positive on the ‘VMS frail older patients’.•A VMS score of ≥1 had no predictive value for adverse outcomes.•The total number of VMS domains had limited predictive value for adverse outcomes.•The VMS should not be applied as a prediction tool in a geriatric ward. The Dutch Safety Management system (VMS) screening for frail older patients is used as a predictor for adverse outcomes. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the VMS for adverse outcomes in geriatric inpatients. Retrospective cohort study in geriatric inpatients. Outcomes were institutionalization, readmission and mortality (3- and 12-months). Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the predictive value of the number of positive VMS domains, a VMS score ≥1, and individual domains for adverse outcomes. We included 477 patients. Median age was 85 years (54–99) and 37% were male. Eighty-seven % scored positive on delirium risk, 57% on fall risk, 39% on malnutrition and 64% on physical impairment. One-hundred-thirty-five patients (28%) were institutionalized, 78 patients (16%) were readmitted and mortality rate was 127(27%) at 3 months and 184 (39%) at one year. The VMS was not predictive for readmission (OR 1.6; 95%-CI 0.2-13.7) and mortality, (OR 0.6 95%-CI 0.2-2.0 and OR 1.1; 95%-CI 0.3-3.7). For institutionalization, delirium risk (OR 2.2; 95%-CI 1.1-4.4), physical impairment (OR 1.8; 95%-CI 1.1-2.9) and a positive score on all four domains were predictive (OR 12.1 95%-CI-1.4-101.7). Malnutrition was predictive for readmission (OR 1.74; 95%-CI 1.05-2.91) and three-month mortality (OR 1.69; 95%-CI 1.11-2.57), delirium risk for one -year mortality (OR 2.0; 95%-CI 1.0-4.0) . Almost all geriatric inpatients scored positive on at least one domain of the VMS. The number of positive VMS domains had some predictive value for institutionalization. Individual domains were able to predict adverse outcomes.