Comparison of the predictive value of ten risk scores for outcomes of atrial fibrillation patients undergoing radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation

A significant number of patients experience recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) after ablation. Various risk scores have been described that may predict outcomes after AF ablation. In this study, we aimed to compare ten previously described risk scores with regard to their predictive value for post-ablation AF recurrence and procedural complications. A total of 482 AF patients (63% paroxysmal AF, 66% male, mean age 62 ± 9 years) undergoing initial radiofrequency pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) were included in the present analysis. Prior to ablation, all patients underwent both transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and either cardiac CT imaging or CMR imaging. The following risk scores were calculated for each patient: APPLE, ATLAS, BASE-AF2, CAAP-AF, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, DR-FLASH, HATCH, LAGO and MB-LATER. Median follow-up was 16 (12–31) months. AF recurrence after a 90-day blanking period was observed in 199 patients (41%), occurring after a median of 183 (124–360) days. AF recurrence was less frequent in paroxysmal AF patients compared to non-paroxysmal AF patients (34% vs. 54%, p