Mortality, Air Pollution, and Energy Production: Uncertainty and Causality

The management of energy techology uses policy principles that range from de minimis risk to significant risk. The protection afforded varies and is discussed first. Next, the paper evaluates uncertainty and causality about health effects from exposure to pollutants emitted by fossil-fuel burning plants to generate electricity. The bases for assessing human health risks from a coal economy and single power plants are reviewed and found to be disassociated from each other. The large variability in the magnitude of the estimates of health effects troubles those national and international bodies that shape energy choices. Variability and uncertainty arise principally from the estimation of exposure-response models and their statistical analysis. Despite issues difficult to resolve, the exposure-response associations are useful. The inference of causal association between exposure to airborne pollutants and excess mortality is increasingly apparent and can be used in policymaking. The means to provide useful summaries of the information are discussed through the proposal for a "metadistribution" of the statistical parameters of several dose-exposure models.