A cognitive model of delusion propensity through dysregulated correlation detection

We present a novel account of delusion propensity that integrates the roles of working memory (WM), decision criteria, and information gathering biases. This framework emphasises the role of aberrant correlation detection, which leads to the spurious perception of relationships between one's experiences. The frequency of such outcomes is moderated by the scaling of one's decision criteria which, for reasons discussed, must also account for WM capacity. The proposed dysregulated correlation detection account posits that propensity for delusional ideation is influenced by disturbances in this mechanism. Hypotheses were tested using a novel task that required participants (N = 92) to identify correlation between binary manipulations of simple shapes, presented as sequential pairs. Decision criteria and correlation detection were assessed under a Signal Detection Theory framework, while WM capacity was assessed through the Automated Operation Span Task and delusion propensity was measured using the Peters Delusion Inventory. Structural equation modeling was conducted to evaluate the proposed model. Consistent with the central hypothesis, an interaction between decision criteria and WM was found to contribute significantly to delusion propensity through its effect on correlation detection accuracy. Greater delusion propensity was observed among participants with more liberal decision criteria, which was also in accordance with hypotheses. At the same time, the total effect of WM on delusion propensity was not found to be significant. These findings provide preliminary support for the proposed dysregulated correlation detection account of propensity for delusional ideation.