Walking speed and short physical performance battery are associated with conversion to long‐term care need: A study in outpatients of a locomotive syndrome‐frailty clinic

Aim As the number of frail and disabled older people increases in Japan, systems are needed to detect efficiently the populations at high risk in need of care and to allow early intervention. We investigated cut‐off values for those physical functioning assessments adopted by AWGS 2019 associated with new or worsening long‐term care insurance (LTCI) certification. Methods We recruited 497 outpatients from our locomotive syndrome‐frailty clinic. After excluding patients who had undergone orthopedic surgery right after assessment or ≤65 years old, 233 patients (mean age, 78 ± 6 years) were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed using new certification for LTCI services need or deterioration of care status in 1 year as the dependent variable and physical function and other assessments as independent variables. Next, we constructed receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated areas under the curve and optimal cut‐off values. Results During 1‐year follow‐up, 37 patients (16%) obtained new certification for LTCI services need or deterioration of status. After adjusting, usual walking speed and Short Physical Performance Battery score were significantly associated with outcomes. With receiver operating characteristic curves, usual walking speed as the test variable showed an area under the curve of 0.740 with a cut‐off of 0.92 m/s, whereas the Short Physical Performance Battery score showed an area under the curve of 0.737 with a cut‐off score of 9. Conclusions Slower walking speed and lower Short Physical Performance Battery score may predict new or worsening LTCI for older people. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 919–925.