Choice of a long-term strategy for the national electricity supply via scenario analysis and multi-criteria analysis

In the present paper, a nuclear, a coal, and a gas strategy to satisfy the national base-load electricity demand are evaluated within the context of a low, a medium, and a high scenario for the growth of the national economy. The main tool, multi-criteria analysis, has been used in two different groups, with various scales to quantify human judgement, and with various aggregation rules to calculate final scores of the alternative strategies. A remarkable observation is that the preference for certain strategies does not depende on the scenarios. The potential of the formalized decision analysis is illustrated by the course of events in several decision processes.