Development and Validation of the Asthma Exacerbation Risk Score Using Claims Data

Pediatric asthma is a costly and complex disease with proven interventions to prevent exacerbations. Finding the patients at highest risk of exacerbations is paramount given limited resources. Insurance claims identify all outpatient, inpatient, emergency, pharmacy, and diagnostic services. The objective was to develop a risk score indicating the likelihood of asthma exacerbation within the next year based on prior utilization. A retrospective analysis of insurance claims for patients 2 to 18 years in a network in Massachusetts with 3 years of continuous enrollment in a commercial plan. Thirty-six potential predictors of exacerbation in the third year were assessed with a stepwise regression. Retained predictors were weighted relative to their contribution to asthma exacerbation risk and summed to create the Asthma Exacerbation Risk (AER) score. In a cohort of 28,196 patients, there were 10 predictors associated with the outcome of having an asthma exacerbation in the next year that depend on age, meeting the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set persistent asthma criteria, fill patterns of asthma medications and oral steroids, counts of nonexacerbation outpatient visits, an exacerbation in the last 6 months, and whether spirometry was performed. The AER score is calculated monthly from a claims database to identify potential patients for an asthma home-visiting program. The AER score assigns a risk of exacerbation within the next 12 months using claims data to identify patients in need of preventive services.