Conflicts and ecological footprint in MENA countries: implications for sustainable terrestrial ecosystem

Conflicts are socio-political pressures that alter wellbeing, social structure, and economic sustenance. However, very limited studies have assessed the long-term impact of conflicts on environmental sustainability. This study investigates the role of internal and external conflicts on ecological footprint in the Middle East and North African countries (MENA) over the period 1995–2016. Here, we test whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is valid for MENA countries during the period of internal and external conflicts—characterized by energy disasters and deteriorating income levels. Using robust econometric tools based on 12 MENA countries, the results show that income growth has negative impact with evidence of inherent heterogeneity across quantile distribution of ecological footprint. However, the positive impact of the square term of income decreases ecological footprint, thus, confirming U-shaped relationship between income and environmental indicator across MENA countries. The results further show that excessive energy consumption is attributed to a rising level of urbanization, while increase in conflicts stimulates environmental degradation. These findings are essential for effective conflict resolution and environmental policies across conflict-prone countries.