Individual prediction of motor vehicle accidents for patients with epilepsy

•Developed a tool to predict the risk of motor vehicle accidents in people with epilepsy (PWE).•Based on nomogram model.•The first cohort of PWE driving in West of China. The objective of the study was to design a clinically useful tool to predict the risk of seizure-related motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) for people with epilepsy (PWE). Participants were patients who visited our epilepsy center in West China Hospital from October 2012 to October 2019 and were divided into a primary cohort and a validation cohort. Ultimately, we included 525 patients in the primary cohort and 86 patients in the validation cohort. Proportional hazard regression was performed to measure the prognostic factors of car accidents. The outcome was used to create a nomogram model. The final model had 7 factors, with a C-index of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80–0.91), to predict the possibility of non-MVA for PWE. For the validation cohort, the C-index was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72–0.95). This nomogram model can offer more individualized advice to PWE who are still driving by estimating the risk of car accidents.