Probabilistic Consolidation Analysis with Model Updating

A probabilistic model for one-dimensional consolidation analysis of a clay deposit is formulated based on conventional theory for prediction of time history and magnitude of consolidation settlements. The model accounts for uncertainties in the loading as well as in the deformation properties of the clay. The model is updated through in-service settlement measurements, and measurement uncertainties are considered. The practical application of the model is illustrated by presentation of calculations for an example foundation. Probability calculations are performed by first-order reliability methods.