Barrett’s esophagus with low-grade dysplasia: high rate of upstaging at Barrett’s esophagus referral units suggests progression rates may be overestimated

The reported progression rate from low-grade dysplasia (LGD) in Barrett’s esophagus (BE) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) ranges from .4% to 13.4% per year. We hypothesize that some reported progression rates may be overestimated because of prevalent HGD or EAC that was not identified during endoscopic assessments performed in the community. Our aim is to determine the proportion of prevalent HGD or EAC detected by BE referral units (BERUs) in patients referred from the community with a recent diagnosis of LGD. All patients referred from the community to 6 BERUs with a diagnosis of BE with LGD were identified. Patients with an assessment endoscopy performed at BERUs more than 6 months from their referral endoscopy in the community were excluded. Visible lesions and histology outcomes were compared between the community referral endoscopy and the assessment endoscopy performed at BERUs. The median time between BERU assessment and referral endoscopy was 79 days (interquartile range, 54-114). Of the 75 patients referred from the community with LGD, BERU assessment identified HGD or EAC in 20 patients (27%). BERU assessment identified more visible lesions than referral endoscopy performed in the community (39 [52%] vs 9 [12%], respectively; P = .029). BERU assessment endoscopy identified more visible lesions than community referral endoscopy and identified HGD or EAC in 27% of patients referred from the community with a recent diagnosis of LGD. Reported progression rates from LGD to HGD or EAC may be overestimated.