Modeling future trends in wetland loss and brown shrimp production in Louisiana using thematic mapper imagery

The land-water interface of coastal marshes may influence the production of estuarine-dependent fisheries more than the area of these marshes. To test this hypothesis, we created a spatial model to explore the dynamic relationship between land-water interface and degree of land loss in disintegrating coastal marshes of Louisiana's Barataria, Terrebonne, and Timbalier basins. Calibrating our model with Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, we found a parabolic relationship between land-water interface and marsh disintegration. Aggregated simulation data suggested that the land-water interface in the study area will soon reach its maximum and then decline. We found a statistically significant positive linear relationship between brown shrimp catch and total interface length over the past 28 years. This relationship suggests that shrimp yields will decline when interface declines, possibly beginning about 1995.