Impact of Carbohydrate Counting Error on Glycemic Control in Open-Loop Management of Type 1 Diabetes: Quantitative Assessment Through an In Silico Trial

Background: In the management of type 1 diabetes (T1D), systematic and random errors in carb-counting can have an adverse effect on glycemic control. In this study, we performed an in silico trial aiming at quantifying the impact of different levels of carb-counting error on glycemic control. Methods: The T1D patient decision simulator was used to simulate 7-day glycemic profiles of 100 adults using open-loop therapy. The simulation was repeated for different values of systematic and random carb-counting errors, generated with Gaussian distribution varying the error mean from -10% to +10% and standard deviation (SD) from 0% to 50%. The effect of the error was evaluated by computing the difference of time inside (∆TIR), above (∆TAR) and below (∆TBR) the target glycemic range (70-180mg/dl) compared to the reference case, that is, absence of error. Finally, 3 linear regression models were developed to mathematically describe how error mean and SD variations result in ∆TIR, ∆TAR, and ∆TBR changes. Results: Random errors globally deteriorate the glycemic control; systematic underestimations lead to, on average, up to 5.2% more TAR than the reference case, while systematic overestimation results in up to 0.8% more TBR. The different time in range metrics were linearly related with error mean and SD (R2>0.95), with slopes of β M E A N = 0 . 21 , β S D = − 0 . 07 for ∆TIR, β M E A N = − 0 . 25 , β S D = + 0 . 06 for ∆TAR, and β M E A N = 0 . 05 , β S D = + 0 . 01 for ∆TBR. Conclusions: The quantification of carb-counting error impact performed in this work may be useful understanding causes of glycemic variability and the impact of possible therapy adjustments or behavior changes in different glucose metrics.