A Prognostic Model for Predicting One-Month Outcomes among Emergency Department Patients with Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and a Presenting Glasgow Coma Scale of Fifteen

The lack of well-performing prognostic models for early prognostication of outcomes remains a major barrier to improving the clinical care of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). We aimed to derive a prognostic model for predicting incomplete recovery at 1-month in emergency department (ED) patients with mTBI and a presenting Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 15 who were enrolled in the HeadSMART (Head Injury Serum Markers for Assessing Response to Trauma) study. The derivation cohort included 355 participants with complete baseline (day-of-injury) and follow-up data. The primary outcome measure was the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 1-month and incomplete recovery was defined as a GOSE