Grade of Membership models reveal geographical and environmental correlates of floristic structure in a temperate biodiversity hotspot

• Identifying the contours and correlates of species turnover is central to understanding the nature of biogeographical regions. The Hengduan Mountains region of south-central China (HMR) is well known for its high diversity of plants, but its boundaries and internal floristic structure are poorly understood, especially in relation to geographical and environmental factors. • With data on occurrences and elevational ranges of seed plants across the HMR and adjacent areas of the greater Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we identified motifs (distinct species assemblages) by Grade of Membership models, and characterized relative contributions of geography, elevation, and climate to their spatial patterns. • Motifs segregate primarily by latitude, elevation, and correlated environmental variables, most sharply across the tropical-temperate divide. Secondarily, they segregate by longitude and geographical features, and reveal a novel divide across the Jinsha River. A core set of motifs corresponds to previous delineations of the HMR. • The HMR biodiversity hotspot is more a mosaic of floristic elements than a cohesive entity. Grade of Membership models effectively reveal the geographical contours of biotic structure, and are a valuable new tool for biogeographical analysis.