Prognostic classification in acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre retrospective cohort study
Acute exacerbation (AE) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a major prognostic determinant. However, evidence for its prognostic strength is mainly based on the results of small cohort studies with statistical limitations. This retrospective study, which included 108 patients with a first epis...
Gespeichert in:
Veröffentlicht in: | Scientific reports 2021-04, Vol.11 (1), p.9120-9120, Article 9120 |
---|---|
Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
Zusammenfassung: | Acute exacerbation (AE) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a major prognostic determinant. However, evidence for its prognostic strength is mainly based on the results of small cohort studies with statistical limitations. This retrospective study, which included 108 patients with a first episode of AE-IPF, aimed to identify prognostic factors and to develop prognostic classification models. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a lower percent-predicted forced vital capacity within 12 months before AE onset (baseline %FVC) and a lower PaO
2
/FiO
2
ratio at AE onset were independent mortality predictors. If the value of each predictor was lower than the cutoff determined by receiver-operating characteristic analysis, 1 point was assigned. Classification of patients into mild, moderate, and severe groups based on total score showed post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of 83.3%, 66.2%, and 22.2%, respectively (model 1: C-index 0.702). Moreover, a decision tree-based model was created with the recursive partitioning method using baseline %FVC and PaO
2
/FiO
2
ratio at AE onset from among multivariable; accordingly, patients were classified into 3 groups with post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of 84.1%, 64.3%, and 24.0%, respectively (model 2: C-index 0.735). These models can guide clinicians in determining therapeutic strategies and help design future studies on AE-IPF. |
---|---|
ISSN: | 2045-2322 2045-2322 |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-021-88718-2 |