Forecast of electric energy generation potential from swine manure in Santa Catarina, Brazil

The population growth in recent decades increased the demand for energy, and food production and both factors have affected negatively the environment. Most of the energy is generated from fossil fuels, which have limits of exploitation and whose combustion is harmful to the environment. In this context, exploration of alternative and clean energy sources becomes fundamental. Large-scale factory farm production of animals for meat consumption is also a significant factor of environmental degradation, being the manure production one of the causes of damage. This study estimates the potential of the biomass of swine manure to generate energy in Santa Catarina, Brazil. For this purpose, calculations of biomass conversion into electric energy were performed. In addition, the potential of energy generation was estimated using SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) models. The results indicated a potential electricity production of approximately 36 million KWh per month, which represents approximately 2% of the total energy consumed in Santa Catarina and is sufficient to supply the demand of 229,384 residences. In addition, it was possible to predict the generation of energy for months after the availability of data. These estimation and forecasted data are useful for a more detailed planning of energy policies.