Efficiently stratifying mid-term death risk in femoral fractures in the elderly: introducing the ASAgeCoGeCC Score

Summary We evaluated mortality in a cohort of hip fracture patients and implemented a risk prediction score named ASAgeCoGeCC with excellent discrimination. It allowed to separate patients in 3 different risk groups with distinct mortality rates. Recognition of the heterogeneity of patients with femoral fractures may have relevant implications for their management. Introduction Usage of risk prediction models to estimate postoperative mortality risk for hip fracture patients represents a useful tool to give insight in the prognosis and assist in clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to identify a predictive model able to determine the possible presence of distinct subgroups of hip fracture patients by risk classes in the mid-term. Methods Three hundred twenty-three hip fracture patients were evaluated, and mortality rates at 30 days, 1, 2, and 4 years were calculated. A multivariate logistic regression analysis using mortality 4 years after fracture as a dependent variable found ASA score, age, cognitive status, gender, and Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) as significant risk factors. Using these items, a score named ASAgeCoGeCC was implemented and compared with CCI and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The area under the ROC curve for ASAgeCoGeCC was always greater than that of CCI and NHFS and ranged between 0.804 and 0.820 suggesting an excellent discrimination. The ASAgeCoGeCC logistic model showed also a good calibration. Patients were divided in 3 groups: a low risk group, an intermediate risk group with an odds ratio for 4-year mortality of 5.6 (95% CI 2.9–10.6), and a high risk group with an odds ratio 21.6 (95% CI 10.6–44). Conclusion The ASAgeCoGeCC Score is a predictive tool for mortality after hip fracture with good calibration and excellent discrimination properties. It is the first scoring system stratifying hip fracture patients’ mortality at 4 years from fracture.