Potential effects of hormonal synchronized breeding on genetic evaluations of fertility traits in dairy cattle: A simulation study

About 30% of producers use hormone protocols to synchronize ovulation and perform timed artificial insemination (AI) in Canada. Days from calving to first service (CTFS) and first service to conception (FSTC) become masked phenotypes leading to biased genetic evaluations of cows for these fertility traits. The objectives of this study were to (1) demonstrate and quantify the potential amount of bias in genetic evaluations, and (2) find a procedure that could remove the bias. Simulation was used for both objectives. The proposed solution was to identify cows that have been treated by hormone protocols, make their CTFS and FSTC missing, and perform a multiple trait analysis including traits that have high genetic correlations with CTFS and FSTC, and which are not affected by the hormone protocols themselves. A total of 12 scenarios (S1–S12) were tested, changing the percentage of herds and cows that were randomly selected to be under timed AI. Cows that were given hormone protocols had CTFS of 86 d and FSTC of 0, which were used in genetic evaluation. Four criteria were used to indirectly measure the presence of bias: (1) the correlation between true (TBV) and estimated (EBV) breeding values (accuracy); (2) the differences in the mean EBV of top 25, 50, and 75 sires; (3) changes in correlation between TBV and EBV rankings; and (4) the changes in mean EBV over the simulated generations. All criteria changed unfavorably and proportionally to the increased use of timed AI. The accuracy within each class of animals (cows, dams, or sires) decreased proportionally with increased use of timed AI, varying from 0.32 (S12) to 0.52 (S1) for bull EBV for CTFS. The average EBV of the top sires (best 25, 50, 75, or 100 sires) approached population average EBV values when increasing the number of treated animals. The sire rank correlation between EBV and TBV within simulated scenarios was smaller for scenarios with more synchronized animals, going from 0.38 (S12) to 0.67 (S1). The long-term use of hormonal synchronized cows clearly decreased the mean EBV over generations in the population for CTFS and FSTC. The inclusion of genetically correlated traits in a multiple trait model was effective in removing the bias due to the presence of hormonal synchronized cows. However, given the constraints within the simulation, it is important that further investigation with real data is conducted to determine the true effect of including timed AI records within genetic evaluations of