The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040
Background NAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD. Methods We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EM...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Hepatology international 2021-04, Vol.15 (2), p.366-379 |
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| creator | Ito, Takanori Ishigami, Masatoshi Zou, Biyao Tanaka, Taku Takahashi, Hirokazu Kurosaki, Masayuki Maeda, Mayumi Thin, Khin Naing Tanaka, Kenichi Takahashi, Yuka Itoh, Yoshito Oniki, Kentaro Seko, Yuya Saruwatari, Junji Kawanaka, Miwa Atsukawa, Masanori Hyogo, Hideyuki Ono, Masafumi Ogawa, Eiichi Barnett, Scott D. Stave, Christopher D. Cheung, Ramsey C. Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro Eguchi, Yuichiro Toyoda, Hidenori Nguyen, Mindie H. |
| description | Background
NAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD.
Methods
We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (inception to 5/15/2019) and included 73 eligible full-text original research studies (
n
= 258,531). We used random-effects model for pooled estimates, Bayesian modeling for trend and forecasting, contacted authors for individual patient data and analyzed 14,887 (7752 NAFLD; 7135 non-NAFLD—8 studies) patients.
Results
The overall NAFLD prevalence was 25.5%, higher in males (
p
|
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s12072-021-10143-4 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2489251877</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2489251877</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-184b8cb8638f9e15fd5215a07dbd96361643fc3dceb04757f96e95c6ffe94eae3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kctOxCAUhonReH8BF4bEjQurUC4t7ox3M9GNrgkthxHTy1hadXa-g2_ok4jOqIkLV0DO9_9APoS2KNmnhGQHgaYkSxOS0oQSylnCF9AqVUwmRHC6-LNnbAWthfBAiBCSymW0wpjICRdsFb3c3gOGibdQ-7Zqx1PcOnx9dDY6waaxuALTzI--wVdmYppDbHANvUlMY6pp8AE_-_4-jq1_8nYw1VfQtR2UJvS-GeNvcA9TpcT761tKONlAS85UATbn6zq6Ozu9Pb5IRjfnl8dHo6RkmegTmvMiL4tcstwpoMJZkVJhSGYLqySL3-HMlcyWUBCeicwpCUqU0jlQHAywdbQ765107eMAode1DyVUlWmgHYJOea5SQfMsi-jOH_ShHbr4-EgJRoWUknxS6YwquzaEDpyedL423VRToj-96JkXHb3oLy-ax9D2vHooarA_kW8REWAzIMRRM4bu9-5_aj8AEt-WrQ</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2531566607</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040</title><source>SpringerLink Journals</source><creator>Ito, Takanori ; Ishigami, Masatoshi ; Zou, Biyao ; Tanaka, Taku ; Takahashi, Hirokazu ; Kurosaki, Masayuki ; Maeda, Mayumi ; Thin, Khin Naing ; Tanaka, Kenichi ; Takahashi, Yuka ; Itoh, Yoshito ; Oniki, Kentaro ; Seko, Yuya ; Saruwatari, Junji ; Kawanaka, Miwa ; Atsukawa, Masanori ; Hyogo, Hideyuki ; Ono, Masafumi ; Ogawa, Eiichi ; Barnett, Scott D. ; Stave, Christopher D. ; Cheung, Ramsey C. ; Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro ; Eguchi, Yuichiro ; Toyoda, Hidenori ; Nguyen, Mindie H.</creator><creatorcontrib>Ito, Takanori ; Ishigami, Masatoshi ; Zou, Biyao ; Tanaka, Taku ; Takahashi, Hirokazu ; Kurosaki, Masayuki ; Maeda, Mayumi ; Thin, Khin Naing ; Tanaka, Kenichi ; Takahashi, Yuka ; Itoh, Yoshito ; Oniki, Kentaro ; Seko, Yuya ; Saruwatari, Junji ; Kawanaka, Miwa ; Atsukawa, Masanori ; Hyogo, Hideyuki ; Ono, Masafumi ; Ogawa, Eiichi ; Barnett, Scott D. ; Stave, Christopher D. ; Cheung, Ramsey C. ; Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro ; Eguchi, Yuichiro ; Toyoda, Hidenori ; Nguyen, Mindie H.</creatorcontrib><description>Background
NAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD.
Methods
We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (inception to 5/15/2019) and included 73 eligible full-text original research studies (
n
= 258,531). We used random-effects model for pooled estimates, Bayesian modeling for trend and forecasting, contacted authors for individual patient data and analyzed 14,887 (7752 NAFLD; 7135 non-NAFLD—8 studies) patients.
Results
The overall NAFLD prevalence was 25.5%, higher in males (
p
< 0.001), varied by regions (
p
< 0.001), and increased over time (
p
= 0.015), but not by per-person income or gross prefectural productivity, which increased by 0.64% per year (1983–2012) and is forecasted to reach 39.3% in 2030 and 44.8% in 2040. The incidence of NAFLD, HCC, and overall mortality were 23.5, 7.6 and 5.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individual patient-level data showed a lean NAFLD prevalence of 20.7% among the NAFLD population, with lean NAFLD persons being older and with a higher all-cause mortality rate (8.3 vs. 5.6 per 1000 person-years for non-lean NAFLD,
p
= 0.02). Older age, male sex, diabetes, and FIB-4 were independent predictors of mortality, but not lean NAFLD.
Conclusion
NAFLD prevalence has increased in Japan and may affect half of the population by 2040. Lean NAFLD individuals makeup 20% of the NAFLD population, were older, and had higher mortality.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1936-0533</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1936-0541</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s12072-021-10143-4</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33580453</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New Delhi: Springer India</publisher><subject>Bayesian analysis ; Colorectal Surgery ; Diabetes mellitus ; Epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Hepatology ; Liver cancer ; Mathematical models ; Medical prognosis ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Meta-analysis ; Metabolic syndrome ; Mortality ; Original Article ; Surgery</subject><ispartof>Hepatology international, 2021-04, Vol.15 (2), p.366-379</ispartof><rights>Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver 2021</rights><rights>Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver 2021.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-184b8cb8638f9e15fd5215a07dbd96361643fc3dceb04757f96e95c6ffe94eae3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-184b8cb8638f9e15fd5215a07dbd96361643fc3dceb04757f96e95c6ffe94eae3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-6275-4989</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12072-021-10143-4$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12072-021-10143-4$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33580453$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ito, Takanori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ishigami, Masatoshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zou, Biyao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Taku</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Hirokazu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maeda, Mayumi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Thin, Khin Naing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Kenichi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Yuka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Itoh, Yoshito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oniki, Kentaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Seko, Yuya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saruwatari, Junji</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawanaka, Miwa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atsukawa, Masanori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hyogo, Hideyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ono, Masafumi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ogawa, Eiichi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barnett, Scott D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stave, Christopher D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cheung, Ramsey C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eguchi, Yuichiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Toyoda, Hidenori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nguyen, Mindie H.</creatorcontrib><title>The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040</title><title>Hepatology international</title><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><description>Background
NAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD.
Methods
We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (inception to 5/15/2019) and included 73 eligible full-text original research studies (
n
= 258,531). We used random-effects model for pooled estimates, Bayesian modeling for trend and forecasting, contacted authors for individual patient data and analyzed 14,887 (7752 NAFLD; 7135 non-NAFLD—8 studies) patients.
Results
The overall NAFLD prevalence was 25.5%, higher in males (
p
< 0.001), varied by regions (
p
< 0.001), and increased over time (
p
= 0.015), but not by per-person income or gross prefectural productivity, which increased by 0.64% per year (1983–2012) and is forecasted to reach 39.3% in 2030 and 44.8% in 2040. The incidence of NAFLD, HCC, and overall mortality were 23.5, 7.6 and 5.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individual patient-level data showed a lean NAFLD prevalence of 20.7% among the NAFLD population, with lean NAFLD persons being older and with a higher all-cause mortality rate (8.3 vs. 5.6 per 1000 person-years for non-lean NAFLD,
p
= 0.02). Older age, male sex, diabetes, and FIB-4 were independent predictors of mortality, but not lean NAFLD.
Conclusion
NAFLD prevalence has increased in Japan and may affect half of the population by 2040. Lean NAFLD individuals makeup 20% of the NAFLD population, were older, and had higher mortality.</description><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Colorectal Surgery</subject><subject>Diabetes mellitus</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Liver cancer</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Medical prognosis</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Meta-analysis</subject><subject>Metabolic syndrome</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Surgery</subject><issn>1936-0533</issn><issn>1936-0541</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kctOxCAUhonReH8BF4bEjQurUC4t7ox3M9GNrgkthxHTy1hadXa-g2_ok4jOqIkLV0DO9_9APoS2KNmnhGQHgaYkSxOS0oQSylnCF9AqVUwmRHC6-LNnbAWthfBAiBCSymW0wpjICRdsFb3c3gOGibdQ-7Zqx1PcOnx9dDY6waaxuALTzI--wVdmYppDbHANvUlMY6pp8AE_-_4-jq1_8nYw1VfQtR2UJvS-GeNvcA9TpcT761tKONlAS85UATbn6zq6Ozu9Pb5IRjfnl8dHo6RkmegTmvMiL4tcstwpoMJZkVJhSGYLqySL3-HMlcyWUBCeicwpCUqU0jlQHAywdbQ765107eMAode1DyVUlWmgHYJOea5SQfMsi-jOH_ShHbr4-EgJRoWUknxS6YwquzaEDpyedL423VRToj-96JkXHb3oLy-ax9D2vHooarA_kW8REWAzIMRRM4bu9-5_aj8AEt-WrQ</recordid><startdate>20210401</startdate><enddate>20210401</enddate><creator>Ito, Takanori</creator><creator>Ishigami, Masatoshi</creator><creator>Zou, Biyao</creator><creator>Tanaka, Taku</creator><creator>Takahashi, Hirokazu</creator><creator>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creator><creator>Maeda, Mayumi</creator><creator>Thin, Khin Naing</creator><creator>Tanaka, Kenichi</creator><creator>Takahashi, Yuka</creator><creator>Itoh, Yoshito</creator><creator>Oniki, Kentaro</creator><creator>Seko, Yuya</creator><creator>Saruwatari, Junji</creator><creator>Kawanaka, Miwa</creator><creator>Atsukawa, Masanori</creator><creator>Hyogo, Hideyuki</creator><creator>Ono, Masafumi</creator><creator>Ogawa, Eiichi</creator><creator>Barnett, Scott D.</creator><creator>Stave, Christopher D.</creator><creator>Cheung, Ramsey C.</creator><creator>Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro</creator><creator>Eguchi, Yuichiro</creator><creator>Toyoda, Hidenori</creator><creator>Nguyen, Mindie H.</creator><general>Springer India</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7U7</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6275-4989</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210401</creationdate><title>The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040</title><author>Ito, Takanori ; Ishigami, Masatoshi ; Zou, Biyao ; Tanaka, Taku ; Takahashi, Hirokazu ; Kurosaki, Masayuki ; Maeda, Mayumi ; Thin, Khin Naing ; Tanaka, Kenichi ; Takahashi, Yuka ; Itoh, Yoshito ; Oniki, Kentaro ; Seko, Yuya ; Saruwatari, Junji ; Kawanaka, Miwa ; Atsukawa, Masanori ; Hyogo, Hideyuki ; Ono, Masafumi ; Ogawa, Eiichi ; Barnett, Scott D. ; Stave, Christopher D. ; Cheung, Ramsey C. ; Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro ; Eguchi, Yuichiro ; Toyoda, Hidenori ; Nguyen, Mindie H.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-184b8cb8638f9e15fd5215a07dbd96361643fc3dceb04757f96e95c6ffe94eae3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Colorectal Surgery</topic><topic>Diabetes mellitus</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Liver cancer</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Medical prognosis</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine & Public Health</topic><topic>Meta-analysis</topic><topic>Metabolic syndrome</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Surgery</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ito, Takanori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ishigami, Masatoshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zou, Biyao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Taku</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Hirokazu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kurosaki, Masayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maeda, Mayumi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Thin, Khin Naing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tanaka, Kenichi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Takahashi, Yuka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Itoh, Yoshito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oniki, Kentaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Seko, Yuya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saruwatari, Junji</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawanaka, Miwa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Atsukawa, Masanori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hyogo, Hideyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ono, Masafumi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ogawa, Eiichi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barnett, Scott D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stave, Christopher D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cheung, Ramsey C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eguchi, Yuichiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Toyoda, Hidenori</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nguyen, Mindie H.</creatorcontrib><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Hepatology international</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ito, Takanori</au><au>Ishigami, Masatoshi</au><au>Zou, Biyao</au><au>Tanaka, Taku</au><au>Takahashi, Hirokazu</au><au>Kurosaki, Masayuki</au><au>Maeda, Mayumi</au><au>Thin, Khin Naing</au><au>Tanaka, Kenichi</au><au>Takahashi, Yuka</au><au>Itoh, Yoshito</au><au>Oniki, Kentaro</au><au>Seko, Yuya</au><au>Saruwatari, Junji</au><au>Kawanaka, Miwa</au><au>Atsukawa, Masanori</au><au>Hyogo, Hideyuki</au><au>Ono, Masafumi</au><au>Ogawa, Eiichi</au><au>Barnett, Scott D.</au><au>Stave, Christopher D.</au><au>Cheung, Ramsey C.</au><au>Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro</au><au>Eguchi, Yuichiro</au><au>Toyoda, Hidenori</au><au>Nguyen, Mindie H.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040</atitle><jtitle>Hepatology international</jtitle><stitle>Hepatol Int</stitle><addtitle>Hepatol Int</addtitle><date>2021-04-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>366</spage><epage>379</epage><pages>366-379</pages><issn>1936-0533</issn><eissn>1936-0541</eissn><abstract>Background
NAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD.
Methods
We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (inception to 5/15/2019) and included 73 eligible full-text original research studies (
n
= 258,531). We used random-effects model for pooled estimates, Bayesian modeling for trend and forecasting, contacted authors for individual patient data and analyzed 14,887 (7752 NAFLD; 7135 non-NAFLD—8 studies) patients.
Results
The overall NAFLD prevalence was 25.5%, higher in males (
p
< 0.001), varied by regions (
p
< 0.001), and increased over time (
p
= 0.015), but not by per-person income or gross prefectural productivity, which increased by 0.64% per year (1983–2012) and is forecasted to reach 39.3% in 2030 and 44.8% in 2040. The incidence of NAFLD, HCC, and overall mortality were 23.5, 7.6 and 5.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individual patient-level data showed a lean NAFLD prevalence of 20.7% among the NAFLD population, with lean NAFLD persons being older and with a higher all-cause mortality rate (8.3 vs. 5.6 per 1000 person-years for non-lean NAFLD,
p
= 0.02). Older age, male sex, diabetes, and FIB-4 were independent predictors of mortality, but not lean NAFLD.
Conclusion
NAFLD prevalence has increased in Japan and may affect half of the population by 2040. Lean NAFLD individuals makeup 20% of the NAFLD population, were older, and had higher mortality.</abstract><cop>New Delhi</cop><pub>Springer India</pub><pmid>33580453</pmid><doi>10.1007/s12072-021-10143-4</doi><tpages>14</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6275-4989</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1936-0533 |
| ispartof | Hepatology international, 2021-04, Vol.15 (2), p.366-379 |
| issn | 1936-0533 1936-0541 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2489251877 |
| source | SpringerLink Journals |
| subjects | Bayesian analysis Colorectal Surgery Diabetes mellitus Epidemiology Forecasting Hepatology Liver cancer Mathematical models Medical prognosis Medicine Medicine & Public Health Meta-analysis Metabolic syndrome Mortality Original Article Surgery |
| title | The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995–2040 |
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