Evaluation of a seismic quiescence pattern in southeastern sicily

Southeastern Sicily experienced a very peculiar seismic activity in historic times, with a long series of ruinous earthquakes. A last large event, with magnitude probably in excess of 7.5, occurred on Jan., 11, 1693, totally destroying the city of Catania and killing 60,000 people. Only a few moderate events were reported since then, and a seismic gap issue has been proposed on this basis. A close scrutiny of the available data further shows that all significant seismic activity ceased after year 1850, suggesting one of the largest quiescence patterns ever encountered. This is examined together with the complex tectonic setting of the region, characterized by a wrenching mechanism with most significant seismicity located in its northern graben structure. An attempt to ascertain the imminence and the size of a future earthquake through commonly accepted empirical relations based on size and duration of the quiescence pattern did not provide any feasible result. A precision levelling survey which we recently completed yielded a relative subsidence of ~ 3 mm/yr, consistent with an aseismic slip on the northern graben structure at a rate of ~ 15 mm/yr. Comparing these results with sedimentological and tidal data suggests that the area is undergoing an accelerated deformation process; this issue is further supported by Rikitake's ultimate strain statistics. If the imminence of a damaging ( M = 5.4) event is strongly favoured by Weibull statistics applied to the time series of occurrence of large events, the accumulated strain does not appear sufficient for a large earthquake ( M ⪸ 7.0). Within the limits of reliability of present semi-empirical approaches we conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the occurrence of a moderate-to-large ( M ≅ 6.0) event in the near future. Several questions regarding the application of simple models to real (and complex) tectonic settings remain nevertheless unanswered.