Forecasting PM2.5 using hybrid graph convolution-based model considering dynamic wind-field to offer the benefit of spatial interpretability

Air pollution is a complex process and is affected by meteorological conditions and other chemical components. Numerous studies have demonstrated that data-driven spatio-temporal prediction models of PM2.5 concentration are comparable with the model-driven model. However, data-driven models are usually depending on the statistical correlation between PM2.5 and other factors and have challenges in dealing with causality in complex systems. In this paper, we argue that domain knowledge should be incorporated into data-driven models to enhance prediction accuracy and make the model more physically realistic. We focus on the influence of dynamic wind-field on PM2.5 concentration distribution and fuse the pollution diffusion distance with the deep learning model based on a wind-field surface. In order to model spatial dependence between monitoring stations, which is dynamic and anisotropic because of the wind-field, we proposed a hybrid deep learning framework, dynamic directed spatio-temporal graph convolution networks (DD-STGCN). It expanded the ability to deal with space-time prediction in the continuous and dynamic wind-field. We used a directed graph time-series to describe the vertex state and topological relationship between vertices and replaced traditional Euclidean distance with wind-field diffusion distance to describe the proximity relationship between vertices. Our experiment results demonstrated that the DD-STGCN model achieved a better prediction ability than LSTM, GC-LSTM, and STGCN models. Compared to the best comparison model, MAPE, MAE, and RMSE were improved by 10.2%, 9.7%, and 9.6% in 12 h on an average, respectively. The performance of our model was further tested during a haze period. In the case that two models both considered the effect of wind, compared with the pure data-driven model, our model performed better in prediction distribution and showed the benefit of spatial interpretability provided by domain knowledge. [Display omitted] •The influence of dynamic wind-field is considered by embedding the diffusion distance into the deep learning-based model.•The hybrid graph convolution-based model improves the prediction accuracy.•The domain knowledge helps for a more precise spatial relationship and provides spatial interpretations. Summary of the main finding: The consideration of dynamic wind-field improves the PM2.5 prediction accuracy, and it also helps to describe the spatial relationship more precisely and provides spatial interp