The Mortality Risk of Proton Pump Inhibitors in 1.9 Million US Seniors: An Extended Cox Survival Analysis

Observational studies have linked proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) with increased risk of mortality and other safety outcomes, in contradiction with a recent PPI randomized controlled trial (RCT). Observational studies may be prone to reverse causality, where deaths are attributed to the treatment rather than the conditions that are treated (protopathic bias). We analyzed an incident drug user cohort of 1,930,728 elderly Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries to evaluate the PPI-associated risk of death with a Cox regression analysis with time-varying covariates and propensity score adjustments. To correct for protopathic bias which occurs when a given drug is associated with prodromal signs of death, we implemented a lag-time approach by which any study drug taken during a 90-day look-back window before each death was disregarded. Among 1,930,728 study individuals, 80,972 (4.2%) died during a median 3.8 years of follow-up, yielding an overall unadjusted death rate/1000 person-years of 9.85; 14.31 for PPI users and 7.93 for non- users. With no lag-time, PPI use (vs no use) was associated with 10% increased mortality risk (adjusted HR=1.10; 95% CI 1.08-1.12). However, with a lag-time of 90 days, mortality risk associated with PPI use was near zero (adjusted HR=1.01; 95% CI 0.99-1.02). Given the usage patterns of PPIs in patients with conditions that may presage death, protopathic bias may explain the association of PPIs with increased risk of death reported in observational studies.