A probabilistic model of the relationship between marshland-water interface and marsh disintegration

A spatial simulation model examines the change in land-water interface that occurs in disintegrating marshes as land, or emergent vegetation, is converted to water. Results indicate that land-water interface increases with marsh disintegration when marsh area is less than 50% water but decreases with disitegration when marsh area is more than 50% water. The maximum interface length achieved depends upon the distribution of land and water, which, in the model, is controlled by a probability function. Assuming a relationship between length of interface and fishery production, results suggest that fishery production may be stimulated by the early stages of marsh disintegration but negatively impacted by later stages.