ESTIMATION OF ACTUAL DOSE BASED ON BAYESIAN PROBABILISTIC APPROACH USING PERSONNEL MONITORING DOSE RECORDS

Abstract In this study, the Bayesian probabilistic approach is applied for the estimation of the actual dose using personnel monitoring dose records of occupational workers. To implement the Bayesian approach, the probability distribution of the uncertainty in the reported dose as a function of the actual dose is derived. Using the uncertainty distribution function of reported dose and prior knowledge of dose levels generally observed in a monitoring period, the posterior probability distribution of the actual dose is estimated. The posterior distributions of each monitoring period in a year are convoluted to arrive at actual annual dose distribution. The estimated actual doses distributions show a significant deviation from reported annual doses particularly for low annual doses.