An improved overall risk probability-based method for assessing the combined health risks of chemical mixtures: An example about mixture of aflatoxin B1 and microcystin LR by dietary intake

Previous studies on the risk assessment of chemicals with respect to human health have focused mainly on the safety of individual substances. Recently, public health policy emphasizes the combined effects of mixtures. An overall risk probability (ORP)-based method long with the combined toxicity factor (cuv) can be used to evaluate the combined toxicity of chemical mixtures from the environment and foods on human health. However, the procedure for calculating the cuv accurately and quantitatively in the ORP method is yet unclear. In this study, an improved ORP-based method (IORP) was developed by introducing a variable time t, and the cuv was analyzed quantitatively using simultaneous equations and based on the principle of least squares regression. This phenomenon can be explained based on the example of the mixture of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and microcystin LR (MC-LR) by dietary intake in order to understand the application of this method. The IORP approach makes it possible for estimating the combined effects of mixtures for human health by dietary pathway. [Display omitted] •We developed IORP model based on an overall risk probability (ORP), which can be used to evaluate the combined toxicity of chemical mixtures from the environment and foods on human health by dietary pathway.•IORP is developed by introducing variable time t and the cuv, which can be analyzed quantitatively by using simultaneous equations with least squares regression.•IORP method enables to estimate the combined toxicity pattern (synergistic and/or antagonistic effects) of arbitrary binary compounds in the chemical mixture systems.•IORP can further analyze the differences of cuv with arbitrary binary chemicals due to the differences in the dose and reaction times.