Trends in the Burden of Untreated Caries of Permanent Teeth in China, 1993–2017: An Age–Period–Cohort Modeling Study

This study aims to identify the trends in incidence and prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth in China during 1993–2017. Data representing >31 billion person-years of observation from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017 were analyzed. Age–period–cohort modeling was performed to investigate the trends in untreated caries that may be of value to policymakers. Analyses were conducted in 2019–2020. Prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth decreased steadily before 2010; after which, an increasing trend was noted without the signs of plateauing (age-adjusted annual percentage change, 1993–2017: −0.54%, 95% CI= −0.75%, −0.33%; declining period RR, 1993–2017: p=6.33 × 10−9; declining cohort RR, 1993–2017: p=3.46 × 10−6). Although untreated caries prevalence declined overall among multiple age groups (p0.05). The increased burden of untreated caries in China after 2010 is driven by those aged