Cardiac Computed Tomography-Derived Left Atrial Volume Index as a Predictor of Long-Term Success of Cryo-Ablation in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

•Long-term follow-up data in a cryo-ablation-naïve cohort revealed a success rate of 53.98%.•Success depended on patients’ left atrial volume index (LAVI), as well as AF type and BMI.•The results extend previous investigations and indicate that CT-derived LAVI is a valuable predictor.•Current AF recurrence risk scores may underestimate the predictive power of CT-derived LAVI. Patients with symptomatic, drug-refractory atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequently treated with catheter ablation. Cryo-ablation has been established as an alternative to radiofrequency ablation but long-term outcome data are still limited. This study aimed at elucidating the influence of the left atrial volume index (LAVI), derived from cardiac computed tomography (cCT) data, on the long-term outcome of ablation-naïve AF patients, after their first cryo-ablation. 415 patients (n = 290 [69.90%] male, 60.00 [IQR: 53.00 to 68.00] years old) who underwent a cCT and subsequent cryo-ablation index procedure were included in this single centre retrospective data analysis. A composite end point was defined (AF on electrocardiogram and/or electric cardioversion and/or re-do). Patients were closely followed for a year and then contacted for long-term follow-up after a median of 53.00 months (IQR: 34.50 to 73.00). Statistical analyses of the outcome and predictors of AF recurrence were conducted. In 224 patients (53.98%) no evidence of AF recurrence could be found. LAVI differed significantly between the positive and adverse (AF recurrence) outcome group (49.96 vs 56.07 ml/m2, p < 0.001). Cox regression analyses revealed cCT LAVI (HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.013 to 1.031, p < 0.001), BMI (HR: 1.044, 95% CI: 1.005 to 1.084, p < 0.05) and the type of AF (HR: 1.838 for nonparoxysmal AF, 95% CI: 1.214 to 2.781, p < 0.01) to be effective predictors of AF recurrence. A prognostic cCT LAVI cut-off value of 51.99 ml/m2 was calculated and must be validated in future prospective studies. In conclusion, LAVI is an accurate, yet underutilized predictor of AF recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation with cryo-energy and scores for calculating AF recurrence or progression risks might underemphasize the importance of CT-derived LAVI as a predictive factor.