Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study

Abstract Background Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections. Methods We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February–July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period. Results Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9–76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0–93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged